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Sunday, May 15, 2011

UPDATED! The Prices Are Alright: ORCCA Box Office Results Week Two, and Top Ten for May 13-15, 2011

     So begins another week of 20/20 hindsight. Starting last week, we began a new game with rules in the link provided. Now, come on the next paragraph to see who is winning. Marshall started late, and in error, I said he would have a +5 handicap for starting late. He should have a -5, as he is starting more fresh than we are. But, I will instead start him at 1000 because of my error, and will have an asterisk. UPDATE: Marshall will start 15 points below the rest, taking automatic penalty for not making a guess on last week's round. First the Top Ten, then our scores.

1. THOR- $34.7 million. -47.2% drop. We see a decent drop for week two. Considering drop for most action movies is usually sizable , this is a great number for the God of Thunder. Cumulative domestic stands at $115 million, and has a similar depreciation to the first Iron Man. The movie is doing pretty well, much better than The Incredible Hulk, so Marvel/Paramount/Disney should be pleased. I expect $180-190 final. Though, if it has a similar box office life to Iron Man, the total would be projected at $220 million. Though, Iron Man had more appeal to older audiences than Thor can provide.

2. BRIDESMAIDS- $26.2 million. NEW. Great opening weekend (better final!) for an all female lead cast, and being an original property. The Apatow name helps, but this would have hit without that marketing push. Bridesmaids has appeal to young male AND female audiences, and has an ambitious attitude. Congratulations to Kristen Wiig for this, she deserves all the success she can muster. Marketing was top notch, and reviews are scorching for this. Very good Per Theater Average of over $8,000. Pink was a bold marketing choice, as it can easily scare off males. This opening show that did not happen. Most of Hollywood was expecting a mid-teens launch. Universal believed in their film, and it hit a little more than they hoped (around 21 million). Expect decent legs for this, as it is all alone in appeal this summer.

3. FAST FIVE- $20.4 million. -37% drop. Amazing hold for one of the oddities in American Franchise growth. This was not unexpected by me, but this is truly surprising many, many people. A final tally of over $200 million is nearly a lock. Maybe it will hit right at $200 million. Could make it the highest grossing movie for all the stars not named Tyrese Gibson. This is a defining moment for Universal, who has cranked out bombs and money losers for so very long now.

4. PRIEST- $14.9 million. NEW. Well, the divergent estimates may take this much lower than this number. But it rose on Saturday, from its Friday gross. This usually means a movie will have great legs over the summer, meaning it will drop low amounts each week. Highly unusual. Most horror movies, action movies, and 3-D movies experience big drop from day one to day two. This is all three, but defied all trends. Maybe that is the key? Maybe all movies should be horror-action-3D spectacles "based on a graphic novel." What a world that would be...very depressing...but Sony Pictures/Columbia could make money this way!

5. RIO- $8.2 million. -2.7% drop. Wow, amazing, amazing hold. Virtually the same as last week. Good for Fox, they really need this to make money. I can't say I can see a final number from this, as this is an oddity for a drop. I'll say maybe $155 total. Kung-Fu Panda 2 will be the end of this movie. 

6. JUMPING THE BROOM- $7 million. -53.6% drop. This and Something Borrowed opened pretty similar and are dropping pretty similar. After it's surprising opening, Broom is dropping pretty much in line with most movies. Nothing to see here. Move on.

7. SOMETHING BORROWED- $6.8 million. -50.7% drop. See above. Funny that there are 3 wedding themed (and titled) movies. Fared better from week to week drops than Broom.

8. WATER FOR ELEPHANTS- $4.2 million. -30.8% drop. Still doing pretty decently. Robert Pattinson can't draw, so it is time to stop trying. Witherspoon is nearing the point that she cannot, as this has made it on her back. $60 million will be the most it can reach.

9. MADEA'S BIG HAPPY FAMILY- $2.2 million. -47% drop. Tyler Perry is taking time to star in the next Alex Cross film, not as a director. This is a good idea for him. Maybe getting into something new will help his longevity. If Madea movies are starting to fall, try something else. That was his default.

10. SOUL SURFER- $1.8 million. -20.8% drop. Still hanging in there, though this will be its final appearance in the Top Ten. This will probably have a great video and television run. Good for this movie.

There is the Top Ten for this week, next week comes the once mighty Jack Sparrow to swindle the top spot. It will be interesting to see how much the public can forgive At World's End, and if they believe in the franchise. Monday will be the day for updates and adjusted scores, so check back then.

2 Biggest Winners for the Week: Wedding movies, Fox.
2 Biggest Losers for the Week: Madea, Robert Pattinson.
My agent said young girls LOVE period films.!

Opening Points:
Jaysun- 985
Richard- 975
Chris- 975
Michael- 962
Marshal- 985

Bridesmaids: 26 million 
Jaysun- 24 million: -2 points
Richard- 32 million: -12
Chris- 37 million: -22
Michael- 23 million: -3
Marshall- 22 million: -4

Priest: 15 million
Jaysun- 13 million: -2
Richard- 16 million: -2
Chris- 18 million: -6
Michael- 10 million: -5
Marshall- 15 million: +5

New Scores and Rankings:
Marshall - 986
Jaysun- 981
Richard- 961
Michael- 954
Chris- 947

Jaysun and Richard hold steady for now. Michael pops up a spot and Chris takes a big dip, thanks to overestimating Bridesmaids. I am looking at adjusting Marshall's score to be more fair for the rest of us, and so he doesn't have an asterisk next to his name this summer. Because asterisks are a mark of SHAME! UPDATE: Marshall takes the lead with his new penalty starting score.

 Check for us on Twitter for more updates, and check out Michael and Richard's entries to the blogosphere from this week.

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