The Prices Are Alright: Post-Hangoverpocalypse update

This is Jaysun, I'm making a quick stop to update the game status, no analysis. My personal life is in disarray, so my input will be brief. I took a break from real prediction.

Opening Scores and Rankings:

Jaysun- 979

Marshall- 971

Richard- 953

Michael- 943

Chris- 932

Hangover 2

Richard: 98 million

Michael: 60 million

Chris: 70 million

Marshall: 66 million

Kung Fu Panda 2

Richard: 88 million

Michael: 92 million

Chris: 85 million

Marshall: 45 million

This is only for the 4 day, as Memorial Day is such a big box office holiday it is taken into account.

Actuals: Hangover Part II- 103 million

              Kung Fu Panda 2- 60 million

I will pull down my score so I'm not insanely ahead because this week we took a big dive.

New Scores and Rankings:
Jaysun: 930
Marshall: 919
Richard: 887
Chris: 849
Michael: 836

X-Men: First Class is the only new release next week. Maybe we get closer this time.

The Prices Are Alright: ORCCA Box Office Results Week Three, and Top Ten for May 13-15, 2011

Interesting weekend at the movies. Some fantastic holdovers, great worldwide, and disappointment domestic. Pirates was the sole new wide-release picture this weekend, as most were scared off. Let's see how this goes!

Ok, so just act drunk and they give you $50 million a movie.
I'm not lying, just look at this bracelet I bought made of
Bald Eagle's Beaks...

1. PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN: ON STRANGER TIDES- $90.1 million. Ouch. That's gotta hurt the domestic brand for this franchise. Though, you can't say this was unexpected (some of us had even LOWER expectation) given the lack of advertising. This movie came about relatively late, so I imagine they are testing the overall marketability of the franchise with minimal advertising and let the past do most of the talking. That may be a bad idea. No matter, worldwide more than made up for this lackluster by comparison opening. $346.4 million since Wednesday. That is the fourth largest worldwide 5-day of all time. And that is quite a feat. No matter how you shake it, this movie did less business than AT WORLD'S END domestic and worldwide. And that is WITH 3-D and Imax and inflation. So they should have looked to re-build the brand, and not keep stacking on top of it. Without that foundation, it will crumble. Look for a new strategy with the franchise if it doesn't top $700 million worldwide. $21,000 per theater average is pretty great though. Friday includes midnights of nearly $5 million, and the Friday-Saturday drop was less than 10%. Which is pretty decent. Without the midnights added, there was an INCREASE of attendance. Just for a franchise this huge, everyone expects more.

2. BRIDESMAIDS- $21 million. -20% drop. Phenomenal hold. The only comparison to THE HANGOVER this movie deserves is it's staying power. Look for this movie to come near or top $100 million dollars. Without an A-List star (almost entirely TV actors...well...actually entirely) or a built in name recognition, this movie will pass Sex in the City 2's gross, and come near to the first Sex in the City. So... all the myths about movies made for and by women being failures could start to turn. Of course, this movie could just be really good and buck a trend. On the THIRD hand, maybe movies with the female demographic in mind should strive for quality like this more often...

3. THOR- $15.8 million. -54% drop. Doing well still, though not Iron Man stability well. Thor is going to have to push really hard to break $200 million. Actually, it looks impossible by now. But it's worldwide total is still looking good. Seems this movie didn't grab, but it will beat Incredible Hulk. And that is a good thing.

4. FAST FIVE- $10.6 million. -48%. So it has finally started to wear down, the oil change is coming up, and you'll need a pit stop? Is the car stuff silly? I can't make too many jokes about cars. BUT, Fast Five looks to finally be slowing down it's cash flow. We are looking at another $15-20 million before it throws on the parking brake (I'm trying). Hello $200 million gross for Vin Diesel without trying to count Saving Private Ryan! Hi $200 million gross for Dwayne The Rock Johnson with trying to forget the Mummy Returns. Great run so far. This broke $500 million worldwide.

5. RIO- $4.8 million. -44% drop. This is the last weekend before Kung Fu Panda 2 sidekicks Rio in the balls, and laughs while writhing on the floor. Not bad, this movie did well, but worldwide is $438 million. Which is amazing. Domestic is $131 million so far.

Look Paul, that is the sun setting on your lead actor career. 

6. PRIEST- $4.6 million. -69% drop. Hehe, 69 dude! This is looking to die a quick death, terrible, terrible drop. The "graphic novel" didn't register outside it's opening weekend (the weekly grosses were horrendous). Paul Bettany can't carry these low budget, religious-themed horror movies. Stop already!

7. JUMPING THE BROOM- $3.7 million. -48% drop. This is falling at the same as ...

8. SOMETHING BORROWED- $3.4 million. -50% drop. Nobody is really looking for commentary on these movies, they are about to die.

9. WATER FOR ELEPHANTS- $2.1 million. -50% drop. End of the line for the top ten. I have not seen this, but I could have told producers to keep the budget down...

10. MADEA'S BIG HAPPY FAMILY- $1.1 million. -55% drop. Madea has now been buried 200 feet below the surface of the earth. We should hope he/she does not try to claw its way out. This movie was a pretty big disappointment.



NOW for the game part!

Opening Scores and Rankings:

Marshall - 986

Jaysun- 981

Richard- 961

Michael- 954

Chris- 947

Pirates Estimates: - 90 million.

PIRATES Predictions: 

Marshall- 75 million: -15 points  

Jaysun- 88 million: -2

Richard- 82 million: -8

Michael- 95 million: -10

Chris- 75 million: -15

GUEST PREDICTION FROM

NEWTON GIMMICK of INFINITE HOLLYWOOD FAME!

68 Million: -22 points

New Scores and Rankings:

Jaysun- 979

Marshall- 971

Richard- 953

Michael- 943

Chris- 932

Jaysun jumps back in the lead! For now... And has fun at the top! Marshall back down a spot. Rest of the rankings are the same. Chris took a big tumble, as did Marshall. But next week, chances to redeem yourself! Kung Fu Panda 2, Hangover 2! Sequels! One will be huge, one will disappoint. Guess which!

UPDATE! The Price Arrrrrr Alright: Pirates Edition. Box Office Results for May 20-22, 2011.

Since we won't be recording before the weekend, here is a written edition of our box office prediction game. Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides. Don't expect a repeat of this once powerful franchise. But some power... On to our extreme guessing!

Marshall: 75 million
Richard: 82 million
Michael: 95 million
Chris: 75 million
Jaysun: 88 million


Let's how far off we are!

Pirates is looking like it may open at 89million given it's opening day of 35million (including midnights) and similar trends of weekends. Worldwide is doing more business than the previous films, so that could be enough for 2 more.

Kristen Wiig has some amazing legs. I mean her film Bridesmaids! Come on now! Only dipping 25 percent on Friday to Friday grosses, and may look for only a 15% drop for the whole weekend to 22 million. That's quite incredible. That "Hangover for women" tag it was saddled with finally is making sense...for box office that is.

By Priest 3D...may only do 4 million. Thor's not doing bad, may hit 17 million.

More tomorrow!

UPDATED! The Prices Are Alright: ORCCA Box Office Results Week Two, and Top Ten for May 13-15, 2011

     So begins another week of 20/20 hindsight. Starting last week, we began a new game with rules in the link provided. Now, come on down...to the next paragraph to see who is winning. Marshall started late, and in error, I said he would have a +5 handicap for starting late. He should have a -5, as he is starting more fresh than we are. But, I will instead start him at 1000 because of my error, and will have an asterisk. UPDATE: Marshall will start 15 points below the rest, taking automatic penalty for not making a guess on last week's round. First the Top Ten, then our scores.

1. THOR- $34.7 million. -47.2% drop. We see a decent drop for week two. Considering drop for most action movies is usually sizable , this is a great number for the God of Thunder. Cumulative domestic stands at $115 million, and has a similar depreciation to the first Iron Man. The movie is doing pretty well, much better than The Incredible Hulk, so Marvel/Paramount/Disney should be pleased. I expect $180-190 final. Though, if it has a similar box office life to Iron Man, the total would be projected at $220 million. Though, Iron Man had more appeal to older audiences than Thor can provide.

2. BRIDESMAIDS- $26.2 million. NEW. Great opening weekend (better final!) for an all female lead cast, and being an original property. The Apatow name helps, but this would have hit without that marketing push. Bridesmaids has appeal to young male AND female audiences, and has an ambitious attitude. Congratulations to Kristen Wiig for this, she deserves all the success she can muster. Marketing was top notch, and reviews are scorching for this. Very good Per Theater Average of over $8,000. Pink was a bold marketing choice, as it can easily scare off males. This opening show that did not happen. Most of Hollywood was expecting a mid-teens launch. Universal believed in their film, and it hit a little more than they hoped (around 21 million). Expect decent legs for this, as it is all alone in appeal this summer.

3. FAST FIVE- $20.4 million. -37% drop. Amazing hold for one of the oddities in American Franchise growth. This was not unexpected by me, but this is truly surprising many, many people. A final tally of over $200 million is nearly a lock. Maybe it will hit right at $200 million. Could make it the highest grossing movie for all the stars not named Tyrese Gibson. This is a defining moment for Universal, who has cranked out bombs and money losers for so very long now.

4. PRIEST- $14.9 million. NEW. Well, the divergent estimates may take this much lower than this number. But it rose on Saturday, from its Friday gross. This usually means a movie will have great legs over the summer, meaning it will drop low amounts each week. Highly unusual. Most horror movies, action movies, and 3-D movies experience big drop from day one to day two. This is all three, but defied all trends. Maybe that is the key? Maybe all movies should be horror-action-3D spectacles "based on a graphic novel." What a world that would be...very depressing...but Sony Pictures/Columbia could make money this way!

5. RIO- $8.2 million. -2.7% drop. Wow, amazing, amazing hold. Virtually the same as last week. Good for Fox, they really need this to make money. I can't say I can see a final number from this, as this is an oddity for a drop. I'll say maybe $155 total. Kung-Fu Panda 2 will be the end of this movie. 

6. JUMPING THE BROOM- $7 million. -53.6% drop. This and Something Borrowed opened pretty similar and are dropping pretty similar. After it's surprising opening, Broom is dropping pretty much in line with most movies. Nothing to see here. Move on.

7. SOMETHING BORROWED- $6.8 million. -50.7% drop. See above. Funny that there are 3 wedding themed (and titled) movies. Fared better from week to week drops than Broom.

8. WATER FOR ELEPHANTS- $4.2 million. -30.8% drop. Still doing pretty decently. Robert Pattinson can't draw, so it is time to stop trying. Witherspoon is nearing the point that she cannot, as this has made it on her back. $60 million will be the most it can reach.

9. MADEA'S BIG HAPPY FAMILY- $2.2 million. -47% drop. Tyler Perry is taking time to star in the next Alex Cross film, not as a director. This is a good idea for him. Maybe getting into something new will help his longevity. If Madea movies are starting to fall, try something else. That was his default.

10. SOUL SURFER- $1.8 million. -20.8% drop. Still hanging in there, though this will be its final appearance in the Top Ten. This will probably have a great video and television run. Good for this movie.

There is the Top Ten for this week, next week comes the once mighty Jack Sparrow to swindle the top spot. It will be interesting to see how much the public can forgive At World's End, and if they believe in the franchise. Monday will be the day for updates and adjusted scores, so check back then.

2 Biggest Winners for the Week: Wedding movies, Fox.

2 Biggest Losers for the Week: Madea, Robert Pattinson.

My agent said young girls LOVE period films.

OK....here..we..GO!

Opening Points:

Jaysun- 985
Richard- 975
Chris- 975
Michael- 962

Marshal- 985

Bridesmaids: 26 million 

Jaysun- 24 million: -2 points

Richard- 32 million: -12

Chris- 37 million: -22

Michael- 23 million: -3

Marshall- 22 million: -4

Priest: 15 million

Jaysun- 13 million: -2

Richard- 16 million: -2

Chris- 18 million: -6

Michael- 10 million: -5

Marshall- 15 million: +5

New Scores and Rankings:

Marshall - 986

Jaysun- 981

Richard- 961

Michael- 954

Chris- 947

Jaysun and Richard hold steady for now. Michael pops up a spot and Chris takes a big dip, thanks to overestimating Bridesmaids. I am looking at adjusting Marshall's score to be more fair for the rest of us, and so he doesn't have an asterisk next to his name this summer. Because asterisks are a mark of SHAME! UPDATE: Marshall takes the lead with his new penalty starting score.

 Check for us on Twitter for more updates, and check out Michael and Richard's entries to the blogosphere from this week.

Matty Nightmares and Movie Posters

So King Grayskull, Venkman and the Great Wars Weapon Pak came out today; in the process of struggling with the Matty Collector website I have way too big a headache to focus on writing anything lengthy so I'm instead going to improvise (re: be lazy) and comment on some of the recent posters that have been popping up without much hoopla.

Pirates of the Caribbean: On stranger Tides

It's all about growing the brand

So this is out there. This is pretty much the ultimate in Teaser Posters as it tells you nothing but a release date; no mention of Johnny Depp or Geoffrey Rush much less Keith Richards (who's apparently back in a bigger role). That's pretty much not needed though as there's a reason that Orlando Bloom and Keira Knightley aren't coming back for this one: no one cares. Has the hair on the skull always been white and I've just never noticed? Maybe it's meant to hint at the hunt for the Fountain of Youth plot point. It is interesting that the skull's apparently made of metal as it kind of resembles the teaser for 'The Expendables'.

Kung Fu Panda 2 

These came out right on top of one another, maybe in hindsight on Paramount's part that this is going to need a much bigger marketing push then the Justin Bieber movie that it split an attached trailer with. I can only imagine that a full-on CGI feature has to cost a lot more than a hastily assembled psuedo-biopic/concert movie. The first Kung Fu Panda was a big surprise to me; I never really liked anything Dreamworks Feature Animation had done before and this one finally hit the nail on the head enough for them to earn my grudging respect. Of the two of these I much prefer the second one as the expression is completely priceless and it has the benefit of no empty space underneath the character's crotch. Sure it has less info on it but it also doesn't bitch-slap 2D as the ancillary method of audience viewing,so points for that. Here's hoping the final isn't incredible as I have a real reluctance for keeping sequel posters when I lack one for the original (Toy Story 3 being an exception though at some point I plant to get the others). At any rate it'll hopefully outdo the Megamind final where they forgot the title character's facial hair.

Don't be afraid of the Dark 

This is a neat little number; it has a real Edward Gorey vibe and that helps it stand out. The advertising has been a little soft for this (there's only been one trailer that's come in on the hard drives) so it's good to see something that stands out like this. Not sure about the January release date but I think 'The Orphanage' was a first quarter release too and it did a little above expectations.

Mars needs Moms

This may be the final, it's hard to tell at this point; there's no date or rating (admittedly the rating on what is supposedly the 'Tron: Legacy' final is also missing) so there's no guarantee of that. I'm glad to see that they've found a pretty evocative image and cute tagline for Berkeley Breathed's charming picture book though Simon Wells has yet to direct anything I've really been thrilled with (I'm looking at you 'The Time Machine'). I have faith in Zemeckis since I enjoyed 'Monster House' and anything related to Breathed will manage to get my attention. Good to know Mindy Sterling isn't dead either.

Cowboys and Aliens

I HAVE BEATEN YOU YAHOO! WATERMARK

This was the big reveal today over at Yahoo! Movie News. At least it was until the Pirates 4 poster popped up. You can see I've circumvented their watermark by taking a picture of the real one I got when I ran by work today. Yes, that's the fridge in my kitchen.

Anyway, this is the first picture I've seen for Jon Favreau's adaptation of Fred Van Lente's comic and I have to say it's pretty cool. They're probably not doing themselves any favors by leaving out the cast members but I don't mind since it keeps it uncluttered. Besides I don't know if any movie star is enough to pull people in who aren't already convinced of the concepts. It's got a Cowboy and a piece of presumably Alien technology so all parties involved are represented.


So there you go: Matty gives me brain damage and as a result you guys get a peak into what it's like when I bring my work home with me. I'm hoping that the Tron Triptych comes out domestically but otherwise I'm basically in a holding pattern until we get 'Thor' or 'Captain America' teasers.