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Sunday, May 22, 2011

The Prices Are Alright: ORCCA Box Office Results Week Three, and Top Ten for May 13-15, 2011

Interesting weekend at the movies. Some fantastic holdovers, great worldwide, and disappointment domestic. Pirates was the sole new wide-release picture this weekend, as most were scared off. Let's see how this goes!

Ok, so just act drunk and they give you $50 million a movie.
I'm not lying, just look at this bracelet I bought made of
Bald Eagle's Beaks...
1. PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN: ON STRANGER TIDES- $90.1 million. Ouch. That's gotta hurt the domestic brand for this franchise. Though, you can't say this was unexpected (some of us had even LOWER expectation) given the lack of advertising. This movie came about relatively late, so I imagine they are testing the overall marketability of the franchise with minimal advertising and let the past do most of the talking. That may be a bad idea. No matter, worldwide more than made up for this lackluster by comparison opening. $346.4 million since Wednesday. That is the fourth largest worldwide 5-day of all time. And that is quite a feat. No matter how you shake it, this movie did less business than AT WORLD'S END domestic and worldwide. And that is WITH 3-D and Imax and inflation. So they should have looked to re-build the brand, and not keep stacking on top of it. Without that foundation, it will crumble. Look for a new strategy with the franchise if it doesn't top $700 million worldwide. $21,000 per theater average is pretty great though. Friday includes midnights of nearly $5 million, and the Friday-Saturday drop was less than 10%. Which is pretty decent. Without the midnights added, there was an INCREASE of attendance. Just for a franchise this huge, everyone expects more.

2. BRIDESMAIDS- $21 million. -20% drop. Phenomenal hold. The only comparison to THE HANGOVER this movie deserves is it's staying power. Look for this movie to come near or top $100 million dollars. Without an A-List star (almost entirely TV actors...well...actually entirely) or a built in name recognition, this movie will pass Sex in the City 2's gross, and come near to the first Sex in the City. So... all the myths about movies made for and by women being failures could start to turn. Of course, this movie could just be really good and buck a trend. On the THIRD hand, maybe movies with the female demographic in mind should strive for quality like this more often...

3. THOR- $15.8 million. -54% drop. Doing well still, though not Iron Man stability well. Thor is going to have to push really hard to break $200 million. Actually, it looks impossible by now. But it's worldwide total is still looking good. Seems this movie didn't grab, but it will beat Incredible Hulk. And that is a good thing.

4. FAST FIVE- $10.6 million. -48%. So it has finally started to wear down, the oil change is coming up, and you'll need a pit stop? Is the car stuff silly? I can't make too many jokes about cars. BUT, Fast Five looks to finally be slowing down it's cash flow. We are looking at another $15-20 million before it throws on the parking brake (I'm trying). Hello $200 million gross for Vin Diesel without trying to count Saving Private Ryan! Hi $200 million gross for Dwayne The Rock Johnson with trying to forget the Mummy Returns. Great run so far. This broke $500 million worldwide.

5. RIO- $4.8 million. -44% drop. This is the last weekend before Kung Fu Panda 2 sidekicks Rio in the balls, and laughs while writhing on the floor. Not bad, this movie did well, but worldwide is $438 million. Which is amazing. Domestic is $131 million so far.

Look Paul, that is the sun setting on your lead actor career. 
6. PRIEST- $4.6 million. -69% drop. Hehe, 69 dude! This is looking to die a quick death, terrible, terrible drop. The "graphic novel" didn't register outside it's opening weekend (the weekly grosses were horrendous). Paul Bettany can't carry these low budget, religious-themed horror movies. Stop already!

7. JUMPING THE BROOM- $3.7 million. -48% drop. This is falling at the same as ...

8. SOMETHING BORROWED- $3.4 million. -50% drop. Nobody is really looking for commentary on these movies, they are about to die.

9. WATER FOR ELEPHANTS- $2.1 million. -50% drop. End of the line for the top ten. I have not seen this, but I could have told producers to keep the budget down...

10. MADEA'S BIG HAPPY FAMILY- $1.1 million. -55% drop. Madea has now been buried 200 feet below the surface of the earth. We should hope he/she does not try to claw its way out. This movie was a pretty big disappointment.

NOW for the game part!

Opening Scores and Rankings:
Marshall - 986
Jaysun- 981
Richard- 961
Michael- 954
Chris- 947

Pirates Estimates: - 90 million.

PIRATES Predictions: 
Marshall- 75 million: -15 points  
Jaysun- 88 million: -2
Richard- 82 million: -8
Michael- 95 million: -10
Chris- 75 million: -15

68 Million: -22 points

New Scores and Rankings:
Jaysun- 979
Marshall- 971
Richard- 953
Michael- 943
Chris- 932

Jaysun jumps back in the lead! For now... And has fun at the top! Marshall back down a spot. Rest of the rankings are the same. Chris took a big tumble, as did Marshall. But next week, chances to redeem yourself! Kung Fu Panda 2, Hangover 2! Sequels! One will be huge, one will disappoint. Guess which!

1 comment:

  1. I totally whiffed on this one. I really had expected it to do less initial weekend and then have some staying power. It seems to have done the opposite.