Greetings, salutations, and welcomes, this is Jaysun. This is the first installment of Summer Box Office Prediction Roundup Bonanza Game Deal...Thing. Starting with The Spectacular Summer Movie Spectacular on Friday, the members of ORCCA are predicting the opening weekend results of new releases throughout the summer, that would be the last weekend of May. Of course, we are not paid analysts (maybe I should be!) so this is super fun happy time for us, and since we don't follow sports, this is the closest we have to competition. As usual with an ORCCA fame, the rules are slightly more complicated than most prediction games and I will explain that here. Each week, for every wide release, a member of ORCCA will give an opening weekend gross prediction based on any factors that the estimator chooses. I, Jaysun, will record these numbers, and on that Sunday will give preliminary results based on Sunday morning estimates. These will hold until Monday night, when revised numbers come up and final tallies are made.
This is the game part, everyone begins with 1000 points. If a member's estimate falls BELOW the actual gross, a point is deducted for every million dollars under the actual amount, rounded to the closest amount. If a member's estimate is HIGHER than the actual gross, two points are deducted from the score. Because, as we know from the Price is Right, it's better to be under than over in number prediction...mostly. If a member guesses the CORRECT amount (within $900,000 of the same amount i.e. if I guess Thor at 66 million, and it makes 66.9 million) than 5 points are ADDED to the score. Sometimes an entrant will choose not to predict an amount because they cannot get a handle on it, this is an automatic 5 point loss. Highest score on August 29th wins. Right now the game consists of Jaysun, Richard, Michael, and Chris. Marshall may choose to join next week at a handicap. And maybe a guest will play sometimes for exhibition. This will also be a Sunday post so you, our esteemed listeners, will have a great place to see box office results before you hear them at many other places. My sources will include Boxofficeguru.com, Deadline.com, and Boxofficemojo.com
So, GAMETIME!
Opening Points:
Jaysun- 1000
Chris- 1000
Richard-1000
Michael- 1000
THOR:
65.7 million (66)
Jaysun- 68 million: -4
Chris- 75 million: -18
Richard- 72 million: -12
Michael- 80 million: -28
SOMETHING BORROWED: 14 million
Jaysun- 12 million: -2
Chris- 12 million: -2
Richard- 12 million: -2
Michael- $1: -5
JUMPING THE BROOM: 15 million
Jaysun- 6 million: -9
Chris- $1: -5
Richard- 4 million: -11
Michael- $1: -5
New Scores and Rankings:
Jaysun- 985
Richard- 975
Chris- 975
Michael- 962
Jaysun is in the lead for now, not much difference yet, but by the end of May, expect some WILDLY divergent numbers.
So what was the Top Ten?
1. Thor: 66 million. Nearly expected by the studio. Don't see this as a sign that the public doesn't want to see Thor, they just don't know much about him or the stars. This opened on the same level as The Incredible Hulk, attendance wise. But Hulk is a MAJOR comic character, with a popular television series and cartoons, bigger stars as well. Marvel should see this as a major victory, much like Iron Man (with huge movie stars involved) opened near Spider-Man numbers. Trust me, the studio will be VERY happy with these numbers, and you should too. I expect better legs than Hulk, so a higher overall take.
2. Fast Five: 32.4 million. -62% drop. Pretty much expected, but officials on Friday night believed a $40 million weekend was possible. This feature had huge buzz from it's opening weekend, so this will more than likely be the biggest drop it takes during it's run. It's looking like a final of $190-200 million to me. Will make it the highest grossing in the franchise. Seriously, how many franchises get their second wind at movie 4, and movie 5 is the biggest? I will investigate this for our next episode, I expect not many but maybe a horror franchise.
3. Jumping The Broom: 15.2 million. Out of no where. But welcomed by the studio, Sony is DESPERATE for profit. And this will make it, it's budget was in the 6 million dollar range, so it's already doubled. A good standard to see is if a movie triples it's budget, it enters profit (with advertising and distribution costs factored AFTER budget). Good for it though, good counter-programming. UPDATE: Huge 2 million difference in estimates vs. finals. WTF Rentak?!
4. Something Borrowed: 13.1 million. Yea, not much to say or see here. Average opening. Kate Hudson can't sell movies, can't and won't happen.
5. Rio: 8.5 million. -43% drop. This is not taking in as much as I and many others thought. It had a decent opening, and a great second weekend, but since then has not been too kind.
6. Water for Elephants: 6.1 million. -35% drop. This is performing as I expected, solid but not great. Just too early in the year for it. September or October would have been a benefit for a movie like this. Looks to end at around 52 million.
7. Madea's Big Happy Family: 4.2 million. -58% drop. So, not even the Madea movies can pull what they once did. Big drops week after week, I believe it is time for Mr. Perry to enter a new phase of his career, his movies have saturated the market and people are waiting for them to be on television by now. Two movies a year is silly. To Tyler Perry- Of course your studio wants them quickly, they have to think in short term, since you make profits. But it is killing your name and brand and integrity. Slow down, make it on your terms. There are TONS of movies, not every director needs a movie a year to be remembered, those days are long gone.
8. Prom: 2.2 million. -53% drop. Why was this a theatrical release again? Keep it on cable movie of the week. Know the difference.
9. Soul Surfer: 2.3 million. -32% drop. Wow, this movie over performed. No expectations can do that though. Congrats to the team behind this, filmmaker and marketers. Sony needed this to break even very badly, and might end up making a little money after home video release. Cool poster too.
10. Hoodwinked Too!: 2 million. -50% drop. HA! Sorry, that was mean, I will giggle under my breath from now on. Look, 50 million (well 51 if I remember) from the first movie is good, but it was released in JANUARY of 2006. It had no competition. Do kids want to see crappy animation at the same time Rio and Rango are out? Have a brain people. Yes, it is intentionally crappy looking, but that's why releases in dead months would work. Plus advertising was non existent for this. Quick, painful death for this movie, and franchise. Don't expect overseas to help much.
Concluding the first Box Office post of the summer season. Congrats to the winners, and sorrow for the losers. Or something like that. Remember to check back on MONDAY for updated numbers and scores, as it will not be the top post of the day. We will, of course, discuss the results on the next episode of ORCCAcast, and follow on
Twitter for updates during weekends. Happy Mom Day! You know who else' day it is? MY MOM!!!!
